Silver Market Diverges, Positive Russia-Ukraine Signals Trigger Gold and Silver Pullback [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

The precious metals market showed a divergent pattern mid-week. On April 22, 2025, the LMBA gold-to-silver price ratio broke through 105, reaching a new high since the 2020 pandemic. As the US Fed did not signal a near-term interest rate cut, market expectations for aggressive easing weakened, and the US dollar may gain support in the short term. On Friday, positive signals emerged from the Russia-Ukraine front. CCTV reported that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that the Kremlin is "ready to reach an agreement with the US on the Ukraine issue," though he added that some details still need "fine-tuning." Gold and silver prices plunged and corrected in the afternoon on Friday.

【Economic Data】

Positive: The preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI for April was 48.7, compared to the previous value of 48.6 and an expectation of 47.5.

Negative: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending April 18 were 244,000 barrels, compared to the previous value of 515,000 barrels and an expectation of -770,000 barrels.

【Spot Market】 Silver: Silver prices held up well this week. After the delivery of the SHFE silver 2504 contract, the spot-futures price spread between silver TD and the most-traded SHFE silver 2506 contract did not narrow. Suppliers showed low willingness to sell, and spot quotations remained firm. In Shanghai, self pick-up ton-grade national standard silver ingots were quoted at a premium of 3-5 yuan/kg against TD or a discount of 10 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2506 contract. Large smelters quoted a premium of 6-8 yuan/mt against TD. As silver prices continued to strengthen, downstream buyers cautiously observed and made just-in-time procurement in small quantities. Some smelters mentioned that the proportion of domestic supply was reduced due to increased export demand, and silver ingot inventories in Shanghai and Shenzhen showed a downward trend.

PV: The reference average price of solar cell rear-side silver paste this week was 5,339-5,424 yuan/kg; the reference average price of solar cell front-side finger was 8,044-8,171 yuan/kg; and the reference average price of solar cell front-side busbar was 7,994-8,121 yuan/kg.

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